Everyone is looking forward to the start of the 2026-27 NBA season. Not only has the NBA worked hard to eliminate tanking, but there are seemingly no super teams (although there are some teams that could be close to it if they stay healthy).
This means that the title race is wide open. So, let's break down one major weakness for the top eight contenders. FYI: for the sake of simplicity, we are defining the top eight contenders as the eight teams with the highest championship odds.
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Oklahoma City Thunder
- Biggest Weakness: Health
This feels like a bit of a copout, but the Oklahoma City Thunder would have won the NBA championship had it not been for injuries to Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell. This team is nearly perfect, but without those two, it becomes way easier to load up on Shai-Gilgeous Alexander and force someone else to beat you. If those two can stay healthy this year, the Thunder are a tough team to beat.
San Antonio Spurs
- Biggest Weakness: Halfcourt creation
The San Antonio Spurs had a chance to win all four of the games they lost in the NBA Finals. However, they folded down the stretch because, for all his strengths, Victor Wembanyama is not someone who can initiate offense for you down the stretch. That's no big deal. Basketball is a team game. But this year, one of Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, or De'Aaron Fox is going to have to be better at filling this need.
Philadelphia 76ers
- Biggest Weakness: Lineup Balance
The Philadelphia 76ers are one of the most talented teams in basketball. But more talent doesn't always mean more success. How will head coach Nick Nurse navigate getting touches for Tyrese Maxey, LeBron James, Jaylen Brown, and Joel Embiid? And also, who among those four is capable of excepting less usage in order to do the other things you need to win (defend, rebound, and space the floor)? I'm skeptical that they will find this happy medium, but if they can, watch out.
New York Knicks
- Biggest Weakness: Backup center
The New York Knicks were able to win the NBA Championship in large part thanks to the perfect synergy their starting five discovered during the postseason. However, another key to their success has been their consistent ability to be a force on the glass (5th in offensive rebounding rate, 2nd in defensive rebounding rate). The biggest factor to that was Mitchell Robinson, one of the premier rebounders in the league. Now, he's gone, and Andre Drummond -- an objectively worse version of Robinson -- is there to don his mantle. Is the difference between these two too much for the Knicks to go back-to-back?
Boston Celtics
- Biggest Weakness: Rim Pressure
It feels like every time the Boston Celtics have disappointed in the playoffs over the last few years, it's because their over-reliance on the 3-ball has come back to bite them in the butt. I don't fully buy this argument, but it is also important to have a diverse offensive attack. And it certiantly doesn't help matters that Brown, who was second on the team in rim attempts per 75 possessions, is no longer on the team. Is this year going to punctuated with another devastating exit, or will the Celtics finally figure out their greatest conundrum?
Toronto Raptors
- Biggest Weakness: Spacing
I absolutely love this Toronto Raptors team. If Kawhi Leonard stays healthy, you are effectively swaping a flawed starter for a fringe MVP on a team that was already pretty good. But even then, the projected closing five of Leonard, Immaneul Quickley, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, and Collin Murray-Boyles only consists of two guys (Leonard and Quickley) who you'd consider to be above-average shooters. There are reasonable work arounds to this issue, but man, would life be easier for the Raptors if they didn't have it.
Cleveland Cavaliers
- Biggest Weakness: The uncertainty of Peyton Watson
For years, the Cleveland Cavaliers have been very good, but never quite able to get over the hump. Donovan Mitchell and James Harden (formerly Darius Garland) are great creators who can't really defend. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are elite defenders who don't space the floor. So, they have asked the fifth guy who plays with them to wear a lot of hats in order to make the pieces fit. The ideal player would be someone who can shoot, put the ball on the floor when necessary, guard perimeter players, and use their athleticism to playmake defensively.
No one has been able to do all of those things at a high enough level for them to be successful. So, they went ahead and got Peyton Watson, who, for a couple months last season, looked like exactly what the doctor ordered. The only problem: is this who Watson actually is now, or was that just a really hot stretch?
Denver Nuggets
- Biggest Weakness: Age
The NBA is a young man's game, and unfortunately for the Denver Nuggets, four of their five projected starters (and their sixth man) are entering their age-29 season or older. The Nuggets desperately need their young players (Christian Braun, Julian Strawther, DaRon Holmes II, Cam Whitmore, etc.) to step up. However, all of those guys are either inconsistent or unproven.
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