Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The Warriors face pivotal decisions this offseason with multiple key players at contract crossroads and the No. 11 draft pick looming large.
- How they use their draft capital could signal major roster shifts, especially regarding the future of certain veteran contributors like Draymond Green.
- The next move at pick No. 11 may determine whether several current starters stay or help pave the way for a new era around Steph Curry.
The Golden State Warriors need a big upgrade this offseason if they're going make another run before Steph Curry retires. The No. 11 pick in a loaded draft is not nothing but they're going to miss out on the surefire stars and may need to use it as as trade chip if they want to land star elsewhere.
They could also keep their pick, make the most out of the talent available to them — for example lucking into elite shooter Keaton Wagler like they do in our latest NBA Mock Draft. Golden State also has a slew of key players holding options or heading into free agency and focusing on fit instead of just best player available could let them fill some specific holes and looking for bigger solutions and star power in free agency. Taking a few specific prospects could indicate they're ready to let these key contributors move on to new homes.
Draymond Green
Green has a $27 million player option for next season and it's still not clear if he'll pick that up, decline it and sign an extension with the Warriors, or simply decline it and look for a new home. On one hand, that option means it's up to him whether he's back with the Warriors next season. But even if he picks it up, if the Warriors don't want to commit to him longer term a trade could be on the table.
Green is still one of the best and most versatile defenders in the league. His chemistry with Steph is unparalleled and it seems like he's the kind of guy you want to keep around if you're going to try and make another run at a title. But his declining offensive game and unpredictability are arguably as big a problem as the ones he solves. If the Warriors really do want to try and pivot, to reset around Curry, moving Green is their biggest lever to accomplish that.
If they end up in a trade for someone like Giannis, they'll likely have to package Green and the No. 11 pick and more. But if they broadcast that they're not going to extend him, let him decline the option and hit free agency, they'll need to use that pick on a plug-and-play frontcourt player who is ready to help at both ends of the floor and can play high leverage minutes right away.
Yaxel Lendeborg is the obvious fit. He's 24 and just won a championship with Michigan. He has the size to play the 3 or the 4 (or some small ball five). He's a reliable outside shooter, plays with terrific energy and can defend multiple positions. Perhaps he has less upside than some other draft options but he's as close to a stylistic Draymond replacement as the Warriors are likely going to find in the draft. And if the Warriors pick him, there's a good chance it's the end of the road for Green.
Kristaps Porziņģis
The Warriors landed Porziņģis in the Jonathan Kuminga trade, with the chance to audition him as a longer-term answer at center or, as an expiring contract, let him walk and clear some serious cap space. He was productive when he was on the court — averaging 16.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.1 blocks per game. But he was only available to play in 11 games and his rim protection and floor spacing from the center position weren't exactly transformative in the way the Warriors may have hoped.
On paper, a healthy Porziņģis solves a slew of problems for Golden State. In practicality, they can't count on him to be healthy or consistently play anywhere near his ceiling. And if the Warriors want to, they'll could find several good options to replace him with the No. 11 pick.
Seeing Aday Mara with his elite interior defense and enormous wingspan would be a dream but it's looking less and less likely he'll still be on the board when the Warriors are picking. Morez Johnson is a bit undersized and maybe more of a 4, but he can play some 5 and would bring a ton of physicality and defensive upside, with a hint of 3-point shooting. Jayden Quaintance is another big with tremendous physical tools and the chance to be a real defensive anchor.
If Mara is off the board they'll have some real questions about how to balance fit against need but there is going to be a lot of size there in the middle of the first-round.
Gary Payton II
Other than a 15-game stint with the Trail Blazers, Gary Payton II has been with the Warriors since the 2020-21 season, carving out a niche with his aggressive defense. He's averaged 6.6 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists and 1.0 steal per game across his career with the Warriors and appeared in 73 games last season as the team navigated a slew of injuries. The team clearly values his defense, vibes and institutional knowledge but at this point, if he's playing regular minutes something has probably gone off the rails.
The Warriors will have Brandin Podziemski and Steph Curry in the backcourt next season, and there's a good chance De'Anthony Melton picks up his player option as well. If they also re-sign Pat Spencer, that's a solid guard rotation with not many minutes available for Payton and not a ton of upside outside of Curry.
With the way draft boards are shaping up at least one of the Keaton Wagler – Labaron Philon Jr. – Braydon Burries glut of guards is likely to still be on the board at No. 11. Payton is now 34-years-old and an unrestricted free agent. Using the No. 11 pick to replace his 15 minutes per game from last season might be overkill, but it could be the move if they re-sign Porziņģis, extend Draymond and feel confident about Jimmy Butler's return. They won't be getting a defender of Payton's caliber, but could get a young guard with a lot more offensive upside and someone who's ready to get buckets in big games next season.
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