The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield are gridlocked in contract negotiations. Tampa travels to face the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1, an immediate stress test against one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL.
Mayfield is set to become an unrestricted free agent next summer. While the Bucs have expressed their desire to extend him on several occasions, the clock is ticking — and Mayfield, it seems, may already have one foot out the door. Here's how his departure could come to pass, if Tampa is not careful.
Step 1: Bucs fail to extend Mayfield before Sunday
Mayfield cut off extension talks before training camp, telling reporters that he felt "disrespected" by Tampa's reported two-year, $100 million offer. That $50 million AAV would've made Mayfield the 13th-highest paid quarterback in the NFL, but his standing would decline rapidly once Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels and other extension-eligible quarterbacks inevitably sign for more.
That said, there's still time to reconvene at the negotiating table and hammer out a deal before Sunday's showdown with Cincinnati. According to Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer, the Bucs have shown a "willingness to get a market deal done closer to the season." The two sides also "weren't that far apart" earlier this summer, per Breer (h/t Bleacher Report).
Bucs GM Jason Licht told ESPN that he is "very optimistic" about getting a deal done.
"[Mayfield] wants to play," Licht said. "He wants to prove to us that he is the franchise quarterback that we said that he was. So, we'll just have to see how it plays out. I'll never close the door on anything in the short term, but right now, he's focused on football."
If Tampa comes with a serious offer, with more years and more guaranteed money, this whole snafu could be resolved within the next few days. While Mayfield certainly is not a perfect quarterback, he has accomplished a lot since joining the Bucs three years ago. In 2024, he threw for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns with a career-best 71.4 percent completion rate. Last season was a mild step back, but Mayfield was in MVP talks halfway through the campaign before he — and Tampa — hit a wall down the stretch.
Pro Bowl quarterbacks are not readily available, so it would behoove Tampa to commit to getting a deal signed, sealed and delivered. Should both sides remain at an impasse, however, the path forward gets murky — fast.
Step 2: Mayfield performs well in the regular season
Mayfield's self-confidence has never left much room for speculation. He clearly believes in himself as an elite quarterback and wants to be compensated accordingly. Having already noted his feelings of disrespect, if Mayfield goes into his contract year and balls out, he's going to feel some type of way about it.
Let's say, for example, that Mayfield can mirror his success in 2024, punching a ticket to his third Pro Bowl and leading the Bucs to another NFC South title. That gives him extraordinary leverage going into free agency, where top-shelf starting quarterbacks are rarely made available to the highest bidder.
If Mayfield walks the walk and still feels miffed by Tampa's unwillingness to hand him a proper paycheck in 2026, why wouldn't he entertain external offers? Sure, the Bucs will be heavily involved in any free agent negotiations, but Mayfield can play the field. All it takes is a team willing to outbid the Bucs — and willing to express the thoroughness of their admiration for Mayfield's talents.
Step 3: Mayfield walks as a free agent
If Mayfield reaches free agency behind a surge of production, Tampa will find it difficult, if not impossible, to garner exclusivity in contract negotiations. It's bad business for Mayfield not to listen to other teams. And folks, even with a strong 2027 NFL Draft class, there will be no shortage of teams interested in adding a ready-made, Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback like Mayfield.
We can go through the list.
New York Jets
Geno Smith was not a long-term investment and the Jets have been stuck in purgatory for years. Rather than fumbling the development of another promising rookie QB, why not pay the price for a proven gunslinger like Mayfield? While there is plenty of stigma around the Jets organization, the chance to live in New York and compete in such a high-profile market surely has its appeal. Aaron Rodgers can attest.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are loaded with talented young playmakers like Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. All Atlanta has needed since Matt Ryan's retirement is a stable quarterback under center. The chance to add one with Mayfield's pedigree — and to pluck him from a division rival, no less — could mean the Falcons come with an extra aggressive offer. The move from Tampa to Atlanta is not too strenuous.
Pittsburgh Steelers
With the Aaron Rodgers era coming to an end, Pittsburgh will need to decide between Path A (third-round pick Drew Allar, Path B (a first-round draft pick) or Path C, a more established free agent. Mike McCarthy is already one of the oldest head coaches in the NFL and the Steelers as an organization are not known for patience. The chance to replace Rodgers with a ready-made franchise QB could hold significant appeal, and Mayfield is a perfect fit for McCarthy's offense.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings were a dangerous team before Kirk Cousins' departure. Kyler Murray is no sure thing and the J.J. McCarthy era was dead on arrival. The opportunity to pair Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and Minnesota's battalion of playmakers with Mayfield — in a high-octane Kevin O'Connell offense — is one Minnesota should seize.
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