Predicting where Kawhi Leonard lands in free agency after this one season in Toronto

The Toronto Raptors and LA Clippers finally consummated the Kawhi Leonard trade this week after weeks of radio silence during the NBA's investigation into L.A.'s cap circumvention. Leonard reunites with the organization for whom he won Finals MVP in 2019, hoping to author a successful second chapter north of the border.

Leonard teams up with Scottie Barnes, R.J. Barrett and Collin Murray-Boyles on what should be a very competitive Raptors team. The East is stacked and Toronto will need to quickly build chemistry, but Leonard's postseason bonafides are beyond reproach. But what happens after next season, when Leonard hits free agency? Is this a long-term reunion, or another torrid, one-year love affair? Let's dive in.

Which team signs Kawhi Leonard next summer?

Leonard will get paid $50.3 million in the final year of his contract before hitting free agency at age 36. According to NBA insider Shams Charania in a recent appearance on TSN, Leonard's return to Toronto is a "complete legacy play." The Timberwolves and Pistons both attempted to trade for Leonard with a desire to extend him, but clearly Leonard had enough sway (somehow) to strong-arm his way back to the Raptors.

Leonard made his own comments on Wednesday: "You know, I'm not really championship chasing ... I didn’t want to put on a thousand jerseys."

Leonard also noted that his son was born in Toronto. There's an undeniably deep bond between Leonard, the city and the fanbase. Winning a championship has that effect. The allure of playing in his hometown (and getting paid under the table, apparently) were enough to lure Leonard to L.A. back in 2019, but the turbulence of the last few months surely forced Leonard to reconsider his priorities, both in basketball and in life.

For those reasons, my gut tells me Leonard re-signs with the Raptors. Toronto moved Brandon Ingram, a former lottery pick in Gradey Dick, and two future first-round picks in this deal. That's a lot to trade for one year of an aging, injury-prone star. It's probably worth it, ultimately, to take a stab at winning the championship. Toronto knows the upside of such a risk first-hand. But in reality, the Raptors probably don't seek this reunion without plans to keep Leonard around. The odds are probably better than even that Leonard retires in Toronto, depending on how his next contract ages.

The Raptors are fairly young and fairly deep, with a sensational defensive infrastructure that should help "protect" Leonard as he invariably ages. This team was in the playoffs as a top-five seed without Leonard, who won't need to move mountains in order to provide an upgrade over the aforementioned Ingram. Given how much Toronto loves Leonard and vice versa — that is perhaps the only city that will fully embrace him after the nonsense in L.A. — it's hard to imagine another breakup.

Other potential Kawhi Leonard landing spots in free agency

Minnesota Timberwolves/Detroit Pistons

Might as well mention the two teams explicity connected to Leonard this summer. Both teams would need to sign-and-trade for Leonard, assuming he wants anything approaching a max contract, which complicates the issue. Especially for the Timberwolves, who just emptied out their future pick stores to acquire LaMelo Ball.

That said, where there's a will, there's often a way. It's probably easier for the Pistons to maneuver into position for Leonard, however, especially if Jalen Duren ends up taking the qualifying offer or finding a more creative way to exit Detroit within the next year.

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks can create north of $50 million in cap space next summer, per ESPN's Bobby Marks. Atlanta is flying under the radar right now, but the Hawks were recently the only Eastern Conference team to challenge New York in the playoffs. Jalen Johnson has blossomed into an All-NBA star, while Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels and rookie point guard Kingston Flemings form a solid foundation for the future.

If Atlanta provides itself competitive in the East and decides to push its financial chips in next summer, adding Leonard would certainly improve their championship odds — at least on paper.

Golden State Warriors

Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green are all free agents next summer, potentially. Curry will almost certainly re-sign, but Butler's days in Golden State are numbered, while Green has shown a willingness to sacrifice financially in order to attract another star. So, should Leonard express interest in joining the old-heads for one final hurrah in the Bay — after sending the Warriors home in 2019 and effectively ending the Kevin Durant superteam — it's hard to believe the front office wouldn't at least listen. The Warriors owe it to Steph, as much as anything. He shouldn't spend his final years in the Play-In Tournament.

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