The groups stage is over at the 2026 World Cup, and this is where the rubber meets the road. The 32 remaining teams have no margin for error because it's win or go home. In theory, some of the top favorites to win the World Cup should have one or two managable games to open the knockout stage. But that's not necessarily the case given the Round of 32 matchups. Here are five teams, in particular, who could be on upset alert if they don't play their best game in the Round of 32.
Germany
The Germans just lost to one South American team, dropping a meaningless group game to Ecuador, and now they play another one, getting matched with Paraguay. The Paraguay team that opened the tournament with a 4-1 loss to the U.S. is not the same team we've seen since then. They have not conceded a goal in their last two games, even keeping a clean sheet after playing down a man for more than a half against Turkiye.
The South American side has the defensive organization to frustrate the Germans, who have not hit their stride just yet. Germany had an easy opener against Curacao and then needed a late comeback to beat the Ivory Coast before losing to Ecuador. If they aren't ready to raise their level, they will find themselves in a 90-minute (or 120-minute) fight with Paraguay in which anything can happen.
Portugal
Portugal undoubtedly has the pieces to win the World Cup, but they are in a vulnerable position heading into the Round of 32. They are coming off a draining game against Colombia in the Miami heat and have a shorter turnaround than they would if they had won their group. Plus, their only win of the group stage game against Uzbekistan.
Even worse, Portugal gets a tough draw against Croatia. The Croatians reached the World Cup final in 2018 and the semifinals in 2022. While the core of players that led them to that success is either not around or past their prime, Croatia is still dangerous. The experience and savvy of players like Luka Modric and Mateo Kovacic make them a threat to Portugal because the Croatians are a team that knows how to win knockout stage games.
Netherlands
With 10 goals in three games, the Dutch have been one of the most impressive teams during the group stage. Unfortunately, that didn't help the Netherlands get a favorable Round of 32 matchup. Of the 12 group winners, the Netherlands easily has the toughest matchup, facing Morocco, a semifinalist from the 2022 World Cup.
The Moroccans have nine players on their roster who were around for their memorable run to the semifinals in 2022. They also have no shortage of star power with players like Brahim Diaz of Real Madrid and captain Achraf Hakimi of PSG. Morocco was far from flawless during the group stage, needing to come from behind to beat Haiti. But they opened the World Cup with a draw against Brazil, showing that the Moroccans can still go toe-to-toe with any team. They are bound to give the Dutch a fight, and based on the last World Cup, they know how to survive and advance in the knockout phase.
Belgium
After two lackluster performances, the Red Devils finally got their act together during the second half of their 5-1 win over New Zealand. That allowed Belgium to win the group and get paired with a third-place team. However, questions still linger about how they will fare against tougher opponents after settling for draws against both Egypt and Iran. Outside of Jeremy Doku, it feels like all of Belgium's notable players are past their prime. This is not the same Belgium team from a decade ago that always looked like a threat to advance deep in big tournaments.
Kevin De Bruyne and Belgium face off against Sadio Mané and Senegal in the Round of 32 🇧🇪🇸🇳 pic.twitter.com/mQOHncs06V
— FOX Soccer (@FOXSoccer) June 28, 2026
The Red Devils are also set to face Senegal, which is one of the better third-place qualifiers in the Round of 32. The Lions of Teranga needed a 5-0 win over Iraq to reach the knockout stage after losses to France and Norway. Despite losing those games, Senegal gave both teams a fight. After playing France and Norway, they won't be intimidated by Belgium. The Senegalese also have the speed and athleticism to give an older Belgian team trouble, putting the Red Devils in a vulnerable position.
Norway
Despite losing 4-1 to France in their final group game, there is great hope in Norway's camp heading into the knockout stage. The team's dynamic attack has lived up to the hype so far, with Erling Haaland being a threat in the Golden Boot race. Scoring goals doesn't seem like it'll be an issue for the Scandinavian side. However, after giving up seven goals during the group stage, it's fair to question whether Norway has the defensive chops to advance further.
The Ivory Coast figures to provide a tricky matchup for Norway in the Round of 32. Granted, they just beat Senegal, another African side with better talent than the Ivory Coast, but the Elephants will still challenge Norway's defense with their speed and energy. Keep in mind that the Ivory Coast nearly knocked off Germany and only conceded two goals in three games during the group stage. They have an experienced midfield that could help them control possession and limit Norway's scoring chances, forcing a tight, low-scoring game that could go either way.
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