Predicting the 2026 World Cup bracket after the first round of group matches

We are now a third of the way through the World Cup group stages. Across 24 matches, there have been 73 goals, the first of which was scored by Mexico's Julián Quiñones, with superstars Kylian Mbappé, Lionel Messi, Erling Braut Håland, Vinícius Júnior, and Hary Kane all coming to the party.

We've now had a glimpse of all 48 competing nations, with the matches producing plenty of memorable moments and talking points. Nevertheless, the true jeopardy will only arrive when we reach the knockout stages on June 28. So, we're going to take a look at all 16 first knockout round ties, forecasting what each of the match-ups is most likely to be, stating from the top of the bracket and working out way down, predicting how the entire tournament will shake out.

Winner Group E vs. third A/B/C/D/F: Germany vs. Türkiye

After their 7-1 demolition of Curaçao, we're backing Germany to secure top spot in Group E. In contrast, Türkiye were very disappointing in defeat to Australia, but we believe the Crescent-Stars will do enough so sneak through as a third place finisher. Nevertheless, given what both have produced thus far, Julian Nagelsmann's team should face little difficulty advancing.

Winner Group I vs. third C/D/F/G/H: France vs. Sweden

France sent out a statement in their World Cup curtain raiser, demolishing Senegal at MetLife. Sweden enjoyed an even more emphatic victory, annihilating a pretty hapless Tunisia 5-1. However, with two tough fixtures coming up next, we think Graham Potter's team will ultimately finish third. Here, we cannot see Didier Deschamps' side falling at this hurdle.

Runner-up Group A vs. Runner-up Group B: Korea Republic vs. Canada

This would be arguably the most unpredictable of our proposed round of 32 ties. Korea Republic was ultra-impressive during their come from behind 2-1 win over Czechia, so might just be favourites to win a World Cup knockout game on foreign soil for the first time ever. Canada meantime had to show resilience to earn a draw with Bosnia, with Jesse Marsch surely hoping the co-hosts will grow into this tournament. Nevertheless, we give Hong Myung-bo's team the edge.

Winner Group F vs. Runner-up Group C: Netherlands vs. Morocco

Morocco were ultra-impressive during their opening day 1-1 draw with Brazil, suggesting they could make a deep run. Netherlands meantime showed vulnerabilities as they drew 2-2 with Japan. Thus, this would be a fascinating encounter, currently backing the North African side for a famous win.

Runner-up Group K vs. Runner-up Group L: Colombia vs. Croatia

Colombia made a winning start to their World Cup campaign on Wednesday, beating Uzbekistan 3-1, having seen Croatia beaten by England earlier in the day. As recently as March, Croatia beat los Cafeteros 2-1 in Orlando but, when it really counts, we give the South American sides the edge.

Winner Group H vs. Runner-up Group J: Spain vs. Austria

The most eye-catching result of the opening round was Spain's shock draw with debutants Cape Verde. Austria also took on a side featuring at the World Cup for the first time, making hard work of it, but seeing off Jordan. Nevertheless, the reigning European champions can only improve from there, so would make light work of Ralf Rangnick's team.

Winner Group D vs. third B/E/F/I/J: United States vs. Bosnia

Topping Group D appeared something of a tall order for the United States before the tournament but, after their emphatic 4-1 demolition of Paraguay in LA, Mauricio Pochettino's team are well-placed to do so. Bosnia meantime earned a 1-1 draw with Canada, so too are on course progress. Were this meeting to come to pass in the Bay Arena, we expect the U.S. to make home advantage count.

Winner Group G vs. third A/E/H/I/J: Belgium vs. Cape Verde

Cape Verde's famous point picked up against Spain leaves the Blue Sharks in a strong position to advance on debut, assuming they can beat Saudi Arabia. Belgium meanwhile was pretty underwhelming during their draw with Egypt, but are still favourites to top that particular section. Here, the Red Devils' individual quality would surely see them end Cape Verde's fairytale.

Winner Group C vs. Runner-up Group F: Brazil vs. Japan

Japan has never won a World Cup knockout tie and, were they to finish second in Group F, Hajime Moriyasu's team would face a tall order as they seek to change that. Having said that, Brazil was not impressive during their 1-1 draw with Morocco, although we back Carlo Ancelotti to figure it out.

Runner-up Group E vs. Runner-up Group I: Côte d'Ivoire vs. Senegal

If both do finish second in their groups, the last two Africa Cup of Nations champions would go head-to-head in Texas. Côte d'Ivoire has never played in the World Cup knockout stages, but are highly expected to do so, after beating Ecuador. Senegal meantime was beaten by France in New Jersey, but more than showed enough to suggest they'll get the required results against Norway and Iraq.

Back in January 2024, Ivory Coast beat Senegal on penalties in Yamoussoukro en route to AFCON glory on home soil. Another close encounter would be on the cards, but we'd give Senegal the edge.

Winner Group A vs. third C/E/F/H/I: Mexico vs. Scotland

Scotland has never reached the knockout stages of any major tournament to date, but are well placed to change that, after beating Haiti 1-0. For Mexico, topping Group A is vital as it ensures el Tri will continue to play on home soil for as long as possible. Thus, we'd back Javier Aguirre's team to make home advantage count at the Azteca.

Winner Group L vs. third E/H/I/J/K: England vs. DR Congo

England sent out a statement on Wednesday, swatting aside Croatia 4-2 in Texas, their first win by that scoreline at the World Cup since the final 60 years ago. Thus, Thomas Tuchel's team look good, didn't they? DR Congo meantime more than held their own against Portugal, earning a credible 1-1 draw, the Leopards' first-ever World Cup point. With Uzbekistan to come, Sébastien Desabre's side is well placed to get through, but England would surely be too strong.

Winner Group J vs. Runner-up Group H: Argentina vs. Uruguay

This might actually be the tie of the round. It would be a repeat of the first-ever World Cup Final 96 years ago, a match Uruguay won 4-2 in Montevideo. Almost a century on, la Celeste were not at all impressive, as they were held to a 1-1 draw by Saudi Arabia. In contrast, Lionel Messi sparkled for Argentina during their 3-0 win over Algeria at Kansas City. With their talisman in this form, the defending champions will surely go far, certainly progressing through this match-up.

Runner-up Group D vs. Runner-up Group G: Australia vs. Egypt

The hipsters pick of the round of 32 is on course to occur at Jerry World, but what an opportunity for both it would be. Egypt has still never won a World Cup match, but the Pharaohs should finally end that wait against New Zealand or Iran, or both. Australia meantime was excellent as they upset the odds to defeat Türkiye, so we're forecasting a famous win for the Socceroos.

Winner Group B vs. 3rd Group E/F/G/I/J: Switzerland vs. Ecuador

Given how strong these two teams are defensively, this is unlikely to be thrill a minute stuff. After suffering a late defeat against Ivory Coast, Ecuador's celling might be third. Were this to be the case, a meeting with Switzerland is probably the gentlest outcome they can hope for. Murat Yakın's team threw away two points against Qatar, but are still favourites to top Group B. The Swiss always seem to reach the round of 16, a streak we're forecasting will continue.

Winner Group K vs. 3rd Group D/E/I/J/L: Portugal vs. Norway

Last, but by no means least, what a tie this would be. Portugal were spectacularly unimpressive during a 1-1 draw with DR Congo; their tally of seven shots was their lowest in any World Cup game ever. Meantime, despite beating Iraq 4-1, tougher tests await for Norway, who it is tough to know quite how good they are. Thus, we'd back Portugal to, just about, get the job done in Kansas City.

Predicted round of 16 match-ups

1. Germany vs. France
2. Korea Republic vs. Morocco
3. Colombia vs. Spain
4. United States vs. Belgium
5. Brazil vs. Senegal
6. Mexico vs. England
7. Argentina vs. Australia
8. Switzerland vs. Portugal

Predicted quarter-final match-ups

1. France vs. Morocco
2. Spain vs. United States
3. Brazil vs. England
4. Argentina vs. Portugal

Predicted semi-final match-ups

1. France vs. Spain
2. England vs. Argentina

Predicted final match-up

• France vs. Argentina

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