Predicting the 8 third-place teams that will advance at the World Cup

One of the biggest changes to the expanded 48-team World Cup is how teams qualify for the knockout stage. In addition to the top two finishers from each group, the eight best third-place teams also move on, making goal difference, goals scored and results in other groups into just as important as your own.

Of the teams finishing third across the 12 groups, the top eight will advance. Four points is almost always enough to get a team through, as is three points and a goal difference of zero or better. Three points and a negative goal differential, though, and you're at risk of crashing out. So, as the group stages come to a close, we're forecasting which 12 teams will finish third — and which eight will live to see the Round of 32.

Predicted final third-place rankings

Based on our predictions, every third-place team that ends up on three points will have a knockout-stage tie to look forward to, with one exception. Scotland, in trademark fashion, will miss out by one goal, paying the price for Wednesday's heavy 3-0 defeat against Brazil. How did we arrive at the projection above? Let's break it down, one group at a time.

Projected to advance

Korea Republic, Group A

Group A was not forecasted to send a third-place team into the last 32, that is until a major shock on the final match day. Thapelo Maseko was the only scorer as South Africa beat South Korea 1-0. This win propelled Bafana Bafana up to second, condemning Hong Myung-bo's team to third, albeit their three points and -1 goal difference should still see South Korea sneak through.

Bosnia and Herzegovina, Group B

Bosnia & Herzegovina are the first third-place finishers to be assured a spot in the knockouts. Goals from Kerim Alajbegović and Ermin Mahmić, as well as an own goal, saw the Golden Lilies beat Qatar 3-1 in Seattle, taking their tally to four points, thereby going through. Sergej Barbarez's team will now take on co-hosts United States in the Bay Area on July 1.

Paraguay, Group D

Australia and Paraguay will go head-to-head for second place in Group D at Levi's Stadium. The Socceroos are currently ahead on goal difference, so la Albirroja would have to win to leapfrog them. Thus, we expect Paraguay to end up third one way or another, but having done enough to go through.

Sweden, Group F

Sweden has achieved the rare World Cup feat of winning its first game by 4-plus goals and then losing their very next one by 4-plus goals. In fact, only once before has this happened in World Cup history — also by Sweden some 88 years ago. Despite getting routed by the Netherlands, even if Graham Potter's team is beaten by Japan, they should have done enough to get through.

Senegal, Group I

Despite the fact that they have no points at all on the board so far, Senegal is in a strong position to advance. The Lions of Téranga have narrowly lost against both France and Norway, but their final game is against Iraq, so Pape Thiaw's team should win this one by a big enough margin that they're not sweating over their place in the last 32.

DR Congo, Group K

Back at the World Cup for the first time since 1974, DR Congo is in a great position to get through thanks to its 1-1 draw with Portugal in Houston. If the Leopards beat Uzbekistan in Atlanta, which they are certainly favorites to do, Sébastien Desabre's side will go marching through.

Algeria, Group J

Similarly to Group D, Austria and Algeria both have three points to their name ahead of their head-to-head showdown. A draw would benefit both, and it may not be a match that either wants to win given that the runner-up in this group will likely see Spain in the Round of 32. Thus, third-place Algeria is likely to remain there.

Croatia, Group L

Assuming leaders England beat already-eliminated Panama, then Ghana and Croatia will go head-to-head for the second spot in Group L. The Black Stars currently have one more point, so they need just a draw in Philly. And given that Carlos Queiroz's team are yet to concede a goal at this World Cup, we think it's unlikely that Croatia will beat them, although both will go through in the end.

Projected to miss out

Scotland, Group C

We're forecasting that Scotland will finish ninth in the third-place ranking table, the only such team on three points to be eliminated, missing out by one goal. That's all very Scotland, isn't it!? Steve Clarke's team was swatted aside 3-0 by Brazil on Wednesday, leaving them with a -3 goal difference, paying the price for failing to rack up the goals against Haiti, as well as some terrible defending in Miami.

Ecuador, Group E

Ecuador was tipped to be dark horses at this tournament, but they have not lived up to this billing, held scoreless through two matches so far. After a narrow defeat to Côte d'Ivoire, its goalless draw with Curaçao, in which Ecuador had 26 shots but could not score, might cost them big-time. Sebastián Beccacece's team must now beat Germany to stay alive — which, even though their opponents have nothing to play for, seems unlikely.

Iran, Group G

Currently second in Group G, we're forecasting that Iran will slip down to third. This will be the case if Belgium beats New Zealand and Egypt defeats Iran simultaneously, which would leave Amir Ghalenoei's team on only two points and heading home after a turbulent period in North America.

Uruguay, Group H

This World Cup campaign has been disastrous for Uruguay so far, held to embarrassing draws by both Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde. This leaves Marcelo Bielsa's team in the terrible position of needing to get a result against European champions Spain in Guadalajara — which, based on how Uruguay have performed so far, seems unlikely. Otherwise, they'll be left on just two points and almost certainly on the way out.

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