While the 2026-27 MLB free agency class is a step down from last winter's in terms of talent, there will be plenty of intrigue around names like Tarik Skubal, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Seiya Suzuki — not to mention the potential implications of contentious CBA negotiations, which could lead to a lockout and major rule changes.
Let's dive into the 10 biggest names set to hit the open market this winter and determine who might stay put and who will end up leaving their current teams for greener pastures.
OF Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs
Verdict: Go
There seems to be a shortage of quality right-handed bats among MLB's contenders, which means Seiya Suzuki should command a robust market in free agency. He isn't the only major soon-to-be-free agent on the Cubs either: Fellow outfielder Ian Happ, plus pitchers Shōta Imanaga and Clay Holmes, will also be looking for new contracts. Jed Hoyer and the Cubs front office aren't necessarily afraid to shell out cash, but we know Chicago likes to take a "pragmatic" (read: cheap) approach when it can.
My guess would be that either Happ or Suzuki re-signs, but not both. Suzuki has lapped Happ in terms of impact this season, but the latter has spent his entire 10-year career on the North Side. Suzuki has spent half as long with the Cubs and he's probably more expensive at this stage, with excellent right-field defense to complement an .855 OPS and 137 wRC+.
RHP Michael King | San Diego Padres
Verdict: Stay
The Padres were financially hamstrung last offseason but still managed to re-sign Michael King to a three-year, $75 million contract. San Diego should have a bit more spending power under new ownership this coming winter. Meanwhile, King is expected to opt out of the two years and $58 million remaining on his backloaded contract, which would allow him to secure more years and more guaranteed money.
It seems like team president A.J. Preller's job is safe for now, and Preller clearly values King. If he has the go-ahead from up top to hand King a four- or five-year deal, locking him up for the duration of his prime, the smart bet is on Preller pulling the trigger. King has been a stabilizing force for an otherwise turbulent Padres staff this season, with a 3.11 ERA and 1.17 WHIP across 28 starts.
RHP Casey Mize | San Diego Padres
Verdict: Go
The Padres acquired Casey Mize at the last possible second on trade deadline day. Mize put up a 2.70 ERA in 16 starts with Detroit prior to the trade; he has since struggled to a 6.67 ERA in six starts for San Diego. There's (roughly) a month left in the regular season, so Mize can still turn the ship around and find a groove before October. But time is running out, and the Padres knew this was a rental from the jump.
Mize, an All-Star in 2025, has done enough the past couple years to secure a healthy long-term deal in free agency, even if he limps to the finish line. The Padres need to revamp their pitching staff next winter. While re-signing both King and Mize is an option (not to mention fellow deadline newcomer Robbie Ray), odds are San Diego will significantly overhaul its rotation.
C Ryan Jeffers | Minnesota Twins
Verdict: Go
Ryan Jeffers was a popular name in trade rumors prior to the deadline, but the Twins decided to keep him and fight for a postseason spot. In retrospect, Minnesota probably should've bit the bullet, especially with first-round pick Vahn Lackey on an accelerated path to the Majors. It won't be long until the next generation of Minnesota catchers is ready (Eduardo Tait, too); Jeffers is all but guaranteed to sign elsewhere.
The Yankees were frequently mentioned as a Jeffers suitor. Expect those rumblings to pick back up come winter. Plenty of contenders would love to inject Jeffers' powerful right-handed bat, with an .883 OPS and 148 wRC+, into their lineup — especially at catcher, where premium offensive production is hard to come by. The Twins simply will not spend at the level necessary to consider a reunion.
2B Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates
Verdict: Go
The Pirates paid a pretty penny to acquire Brandon Lowe as a rental last winter. The same trade brought back Jake Mangum and now-closer Mason Montgomery, both of whom will contribute for years to come. Lowe has effectively anchored Pittsburgh's lineup with an .805 OPS and 115 wRC+, while also transforming into a Gold Glove candidate at second base (12 OAA) after grading among the worst defensive infielders in MLB the year before (-14 OAA).
Pittsburgh operated with real aggression last offseason, even placing a bid on Kyle Schwarber, but this is a cheap front office by reputation. Lowe will probably look for a contract that pays him well into his mid- or late-30s, which is an investment the Pirates probably balk at. Pittsburgh has the prospects to replace Lowe from within, while plenty of more affordable, shorter-term alternatives exist in free agency or via trade.
RHP Sonny Gray | Boston Red Sox
Verdict: Stay
Sonny Gray has a $10 million buyout on a $30 million mutual option. Historically, mutual options are mere formality; Gray is going to hit the open market with rabid interest from a wide range of contenders. The 36-year-old is no doubt past his prime, but Gray has nonetheless dominated for the Red Sox this season. He has a 2.82 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 25 starts, with 128 strikeouts in 143.2 innings pitched.
Boston has a surplus of quality pitchers and Garrett Crochet should return to a starting role next season, but it's hard to imagine Gray ending up anywhere else. The vibes are strong in Beantown and he has consistently expressed his desire to re-sign with the Red Sox. Expect Gray to return on a one- or two-year deal in hopes of finally capturing that elusive World Series crown.
OF Randy Arozarena | Seattle Mariners
Verdict: Go
Is Seattle the single most disappointing team in MLB this season? Quite possibly. The Mariners were a heartbreaking Game 7 loss away from the World Series last October. Now, Seattle is nine games below .500 and fading fast. One of the few Mariners to actually meet or exceed expectations this season is Randy Arozarena, whose .836 OPS and 144 wRC+ should prompt ample interest once he becomes a free agent.
That weird beef between Arozarena and Cal Raleigh in the World Baseball Classic this past spring is long buried, and Seattle really needs Arozarena's vibrant personality. That said, he's going to get paid in a market hungry for right-handed boppers, and the Mariners are equipped with a deep enough farm system to either replace Arozarena internally or via trade.
INF Luis Arráez | Philadelphia Phillies
Verdict: Go
The Phillies gave up a top-100 prospect in Ramon Marquez to acquire Luis Arráez at the deadline, so there's incentive to keep him around. Plus, Arráez's presence in the cleanup spot has completely unlocked Bryce Harper, whose more patient approach has led to a 35-game (and counting) on-base streak. Arráez has improved the Phillies' infield defense, too, with Bryson Stott thriving upon his move to third base.
There's no financial reason for the Phillies to not re-sign Arráez; this same front office almost gave Bo Bichette seven years and $200 million. And yet, methinks Philadelphia will ultimately move in a different direction. Not only will Arráez command significant external interest, but the Phillies will presumably welcome top infield prospect Aidan Miller into the fold next spring. Harper will move back to first base. If the Phillies aim high and spend big in free agency, the smart bet is on an outfielder, not Arráez.
INF Jazz Chisholm Jr. | New York Yankees
Verdict: Stay
The Yankees and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are stuck in something of a toxic relationship, in which neither side feels fully satisfied. Still, what exactly is the alternative for New York? Lowe or Arráez? A Gleyber Torres reunion? There are decent options out there, but none with the upside of Chisholm, who's up to a career-high 40 stolen bases this season with elite defensive metrics at second base to compensate for his inconsistency at the plate.
We know Chisholm is a perennial 30-30 threat. The Yankees are too reliant on left-handed bats, but New York would be remiss to sacrifice Chisholm's elite talent over fit concerns. There are other avenues to balancing out the lineup. Given Chisholm's complicated reputation, odds are external interest is muted enough to facilitate his return to the Bronx. The Yankees won't be outspent.
LHP Tarik Skubal | Los Angeles Dodgers
Verdict: Go
This is a real coin flip. There are two teams, realistically, in the running for Tarik Skubal: the Dodgers and the Mets. Los Angeles presumably views itself as the favorite after getting him in the door at the trade deadline. If Skubal's primary goal is to compete at the highest level, the Dodgers are the obvious pick. If he wins a World Series this fall, as most MLB experts predict, it will be hard for him to pick up and leave.
Then again, the Mets boast baseball's richest owner in Steve Cohen, who's as desperate as ever to put a winning product on the field. It's fair to question whether or not GM David Stearns will view a $400 million pitching investment as the smartest allocation of resources, but Skubal is a singular force of nature and he would add immediate credibility to this youthful Mets rotation. Between Nolan McLean, Christian Scott, Zac Thornton and Skubal, New York's pitching staff would be positioned for a swift turnaround in 2027.
Assuming the new CBA and a potential lockout don't throw free agency into complete chaos, Skubal's free agency will be a two-horse race. The Mets need him more than the Dodgers, to be frank, and it's not like Skubal's transition to Hollywood has been seamless.
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