Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The AL Wild Card race features nine teams within five games of a playoff spot, making it one of the most unpredictable battles in recent memory.
- Three teams face particularly steep challenges due to combinations of poor performance, injuries, and brutal remaining schedules.
- The next three months will test whether these franchises can overcome their weaknesses or fall victim to the AL's brutal parity.
The American League standings are a complete hodgepodge right now. None of it really makes sense. The Rays, White Sox and Rangers are currently first place in their respective divisions, just as absolutely nobody predicted. Right now, nine teams are within five games of a Wild Card spot.
Only five American League teams are above .500 entering the All-Star break. That feels almost impossible. A lot of teams are disappointing, but there's still time to turn it around. That will be easier for some teams than others, however.
AL Wild Card standings
Team | Record | GB |
|---|---|---|
4. New York Yankees | 53-42 | -- |
5. Cleveland Guardians | 50-46 | -- |
6. Seattle Mariners | 47-49 | -- |
Minnesota Twins | 47-49 | -- |
Houston Astros | 47-50 | 0.5 |
Boston Red Sox | 45-48 | 0.5 |
Toronto Blue Jays | 45-50 | 1.5 |
Baltimore Orioles | 45-51 | 2.0 |
Detroit Tigers | 44-51 | 2.5 |
The American League is the opposite of a bloodbath. Every team has major weaknesses and, with a few exceptions, is wildly underperforming preseason expectations. Seldom does the Wild Card feel so wide open, so accessible to virtually every team. The last-place Royals and Angels, both 20 games below .500, are only nine games out of the third Wild Card spot. Really nobody is out of it at this point.
For the purposes of this exercise, however, we shall focus on teams within five games of the postseason bracket. That leaves the Angels, Royals and Athletics (5.5 GB) on the outside looking in. But really, if the A's went on a run and claimed a spot in October, nobody would be shocked.
AL Wild Card standings based on remaining strength of schedule (SOS)
Team | Record | Strength of Schedule |
|---|---|---|
1. Cleveland Guardians | 50-46 | .468 |
2. Houston Astros | 47-50 | .485 |
3. Minnesota Twins | 47-49 | .488 |
4. Detroit Tigers | 44-51 | .489 |
5. Seattle Mariners | 47-49 | .492 |
6. Boston Red Sox | 45-48 | .500 |
7. Toronto Blue Jays | 45-50 | .501 |
8. New York Yankees | 53-42 | .503 |
9. Baltimore Orioles | 45-51 | .505 |
The AL East draws the short end of the stick here. Of all the AL Wild Card contenders, the four toughest remaining schedules belong to the same division — with first-place Tampa Bay boasting an easier remaining schedule (.487) than all of them. This is music to the ears of Rays fans.
On the other hand, the AL Central — and this can hardly be a coincidence — has three of the four easiest remaining schedules among Wild Card contenders. The talent concentrated in the AL East, compared to the AL Central, makes life considerably harder on the former. Such are the perils of sharing a division with some of baseball's biggest spenders.
These AL Wild Card teams are in trouble
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore has plenty of offensive talent, even with Gunnar Henderson mired in an unconventional, borderline inexplicable slump. But despite the power concentrated between the likes of Pete Alonso, Samuel Basallo and Adley Rutschman, it's hard to trust the O's pitching staff.
Baltimore does not have the necessary capacity for run prevention to dig itself out of a hole, especially when faced with such an unfortunate schedule. Milwaukee, Tampa Bay, New York and Philadelphia are all on the docket, with seven remaining games against the top-seeded Rays.
Toronto Blue Jays
Has there been a more disappointing team in MLB this season? The Blue Jays were in the World Series less than a year ago. Toronto was such a deep, composed offensive team, with a burgeoning ace in Trey Yesavage to complement more experienced arms like Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber. If you told Blue Jays fans last winter that newcomer Dylan Cease would be starting the All-Game Game on the mound, they'd think Toronto was right back at the top of the standings.
Unfortunately, Toronto has fallen victim to a toxic cocktail of underperformance and injuries. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., after a postseason run that stamped him as one of baseball's brightest stars, is suddenly hapless at the plate. George Springer followed up his meteoric comeback campaign with an all-too-predictable collapse. Toronto still has a ton of talent, but the vibes could not be much worse, and the schedule does them zero favors. Tampa Bay (seven games) and New York (six games) will get an opportunity to bury the reigning AL champs in the coming months.
Houston Astros
While Houston actually has an easier schedule than most of their peers in the AL Wild Card hunt, a few more troubling numbers plant the seed of doubt. The Astros have allowed the most runs (490) and own the worst run differential (-46) of any team on this list. On a base level, the Astros feel like the weakest link.
The Astros' swift decline since Dusty Baker's firing is no secret. While Yordan Álvarez is a legitimate frontrunner for AL MVP, the rest of Houston's lineup oscillates between inconsistent and actively detrimental. The rotation is a house of cards. Beyond Hunter Brown and Peter Lambert, it's been hard for the Astros to string together consistent quality starts.
If you are looking for the chief pretender in a field full of 'em, Houston probably takes the cake.
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