The NFL chews coaches up and spits them out every year. Some never should have been hired in the first place, the product of bad front offices, suspect ownership groups and faulty processes. Some are capable of succeeding, but not with the organizations that just hired them. And others are safe bets.
This year's crop of new coaches encompassed nearly a third of the league, a considerable swath, giving us 10 new hires to evaluate. Having had a chance to speak to executives around the league this offseason, and with rosters somewhat settled now, here’s how I’d rank the crop in terms of their ability to succeed — and possibly exceed expectations — in year one.
The safest bets
Jesse Minter, Baltimore Ravens
Minter has big shoes to fill, and Vegas projecting them to flirt with the highest win total in the NFL feels a bit rich. But everyone I’ve talked to believes Minter is going to fix a broken defense pretty quickly. His pedigree with the Chargers and in Ann Arbor speaks for itself. The concerns are on offense, but they still have Lamar Jackson at least for 2026. “That could be a top five defense,” one GM told me. “Minter is the real deal.”
Joe Brady, Buffalo Bills
Like Minter, Brady inherits a team perpetually in the playoffs with a unicorn QB in Josh Allen and replaces a highly-successful coach. Like Minter, he also faces some Super Bowl or bust stuff. His secret weapon could be defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard, whose recent college background and then immediate success helping run the Broncos defense has given some around the league Mike Macdonald vibes. “They’ll win that division,” one AFC advance scout told me. Expect the Patriots to regress significantly.
Jeff Hafley, Miami Dolphins
He did a nice job at Boston College, which ain’t easy, and people I trust around the league are raving about the coach/GM duo here (both with Packers roots, which is a nice place to start a reboot), after years of Dolphins turmoil. They are clearly on a two-to-three year plan, and no one expects much in 2026. But Malik Willis can play QB. “They are going to build it the right way, watch,” one longtime personnel exec said.
Klint Kubiak, Las Vegas Raiders
Nothing about this hire will be under-the-radar, with Kubiak’s dad a longtime NFL QB and a Super Bowl-winning head coach and Kubiak winning a Lombardi Trophy last year in his first year as Seahawks offensive coordinator.
Oh, Tom Brady also hired him, and they selected a QB first-overall for Kubiak to develop. But the Raiders also had by all accounts a smart offseason for the first time in forever. “That one has a chance to work out,” the GM said. “They had a great offseason.” For Mark Davis, a coach getting a second contract would be cause for a parade.
Proven head coaches getting another shot
John Harbaugh, New York Giants
He immediately commands respect, is compiling a Hall of Fame resume and comes from a great coaching family. The Giants have had that stuff around since they pushed Tom Coughlin out. Order has been restored.
“They will be a professionally run operation,” the personnel exec said. “No more bullshit.” However, questions remain about their young pieces of offense and specifically their ability to stay healthy. “Quarterback, left tackle, running back, receiver,” the scout said. “That’s a lot (of injury-prone players).”
Kevin Stefanski, Atlanta Falcons
He didn’t win Coach of the Year because he doesn’t know what he’s doing, but Matt Ryan (head of football ops) has never been in this role before, and they might not have a QB on the roster. Can they salvage Michael Penix or will they waste too much time on Tua Tagovailoa? If nothing else, he’s going to stick around a few years based on his power and resume. Not sure about the rest of the guys on this list.
Mike McCarthy, Pittsburgh Steelers
The entire league believes the Steelers remain on a 9-7 treadmill, only with McCarthy instead of Mike Tomlin leading the charge now. QB Aaron Rogers looked cooked last year. We continue to hear he is a believer in Will Howard and getting a looksee at him could help sort some things out. “Same team, new coach,” is how the scout put it.
Talented, but facing uphill battles
Todd Monken, Cleveland Browns
You get the sense he would love to give the offense to young QB Shedeur Sanders and immerse him in every rep possible, but the backwards Deshaun Watson contract has ownership looking to get something out of a $230M mistake. Nothing ever works for long in Cleveland, and this is another rebuild. But we’re Monk truthers, have seen his work up close, and we bet the offense makes some strides.
The biggest long shots
Robert Saleh, Tennessee Titans
Our people around the league aren’t buying this one. And neither are we. You can say everybody is a disaster with the Jets, in assessing his first stint as a head coach, but this ownership group in Nashville has been terrible, and the building is always draped in toxicity. Good luck! “I don’t buy that one,” another GM said. “Not a fan.”
Mike LaFleur, Arizona Cardinals
This is a total tank job for a QB in 2027, but they made some quizzical offseason moves and are at war with their starting QB (Jacoby Brissett). The Bidwell family do losing like few others, and they went young and cheap again, because, well … The NFC West is a monster. LaFleur is the kind of guy who probably gets a second chance and we’ll probably be more bullish on that working out.
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