There's no better time for NFL fans to be optimistic than right now, less than a week before the regular season kicks off. Right now, every team is 0-0 with a chance to do something special. Who expected the Seattle Seahawks to win it all entering the 2025 campaign? I certainly didn't, and I'd guess even the most optimistic Seahawks fans didn't really expect that outcome either. While being optimistic is fun, fans of the teams below need to be realistic.
More likely than not, these eight teams will finish at the bottom of their respective divisions in 2026, making it all but certain that they won't make the playoffs this season, or even come close to doing so.
AFC East: Miami Dolphins
Whether they want to admit it or not, the Miami Dolphins are tanking. Not only did they release Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Bradley Chubb, but they also traded Jaylen Waddle and Minkah Fitzpatrick for draft picks. They signed Malik Willis, giving him a shot to be their long-term solution under center, but who's their No. 1 receiver? Malik Washington? Jalen Tolbert? De'Von Achane is still there, but with a weak offensive line in front of him and a lack of alternative weapons, how big a year can he even have? This offense is going to be hard to watch.
I'm not going to say they are wrong for tanking. It's clear that their core was not getting the job done, and tanking gives them a chance to meaningfully improve during next year's draft. However, as disappointing as that core was, it's clear that this group they have now is a meaningful downgrade. The Dolphins have some intriguing youngsters worth watching, but it's clear this team is not trying to win right now. It feels weird not to put the Jets on a list like this, but they beefed up their defense enough to give reason to believe they can meaningfully improve. The Dolphins, on the other hand, might be the worst team in football.
AFC North: Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns named Deshaun Watson their starting quarterback. Isn't that enough to proclaim them as the favorites to finish at the bottom of the AFC North? Not only is Watson one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL at this point in his career, but he's become a major distraction in Cleveland. It feels like he's only starting because he's owed a ton of money, not because he earned it (even if Shedeur Sanders isn't much better).
Even beyond their inexplicably bad quarterback situation, Cleveland's offense is very young and developing, and its defense lost Myles Garrett, who was traded to the Rams in the offseason. The Browns won just five games in 2025 even with Garrett having a historically great season. Are we sure they can win five games without him? Even if they do, it's hard to envision the Ravens, Steelers and Bengals- three far more talented teams- winning fewer than five games and finishing below Cleveland.
AFC South: Tennessee Titans
The Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars both made the playoffs in 2025 and could be even better, assuming Houston gets better quarterback play from C.J. Stroud and the Jaguars continue to emerge in Liam Coen's second season as their head coach. The Indianapolis Colts missed out on the postseason, but that was mainly because of Daniel Jones' season-ending injury. Jones is healthy now, and the Colts were leading the charge in the AFC South when that was the case in 2025.
Already, the Tennessee Titans face a brutal task of finishing ahead of what could be two or three postseason teams in 2026. Factoring in major uncertainty from Cam Ward under center, it's really hard to picture anything but a last-place finish for Tennessee. That wouldn't be a terrible thing, as long as Ward and other youngsters show meaningful improvement, but given where they are and how good the rest of the division is, it's hard to envision them not finishing in last place.
AFC West: Las Vegas Raiders
The Las Vegas Raiders can be a lot of fun. Brock Bowers is already one of the best tight ends in the sport, Ashton Jeanty is poised for a big year running behind Tyler Linderbaum, Maxx Crosby is still in town, Klint Kubiak has a chance to be an elite head coach, and once he gets a chance to start, Fernando Mendoza has a chance to prove why the Raiders selected him No. 1 overall.
While there's reason to believe this Raiders team is on the rise, the fact that they play in the AFC West can't be ignored. The Denver Broncos were the AFC's No. 1 seed last season, and they acquired Jaylen Waddle in the offseason. The Los Angeles Chargers were a playoff team despite rough injury luck. They're bound to return to the postseason if Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater can stay on the field. The Kansas City Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes back. Whether it's Mendoza or Kirk Cousins under center, the Raiders have comfortably the worst quarterback in this division.
There's a good chance this division will have two, if not three, playoff teams, making life increasingly difficult for the Raiders to make any sort of noise.
NFC East: Washington Commanders
This one could age very poorly. Jayden Daniels has shown how good he can be when healthy, and not only did the Washington Commanders add Stefon Diggs to a receiver room already consisting of Terry McLaurin, but they beefed up their defense as well. This team could be quite good if everything clicks, but that's a big if given the question marks they have.
The Commanders' offensive line is in a dire spot with Laremy Tunsil potentially out for the season, and that could make the task of keeping Daniels healthy a tough one after the quarterback missed 10 games last season. Additionally, the NFC East should be competitive. The Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles are solidified contenders, and while the New York Giants haven't done much winning in recent years, they now have John Harbaugh and an improved roster. The Giants have some offensive concerns, but Harbaugh and their defense should be good enough to get New York ahead of Washington in the standings. Again, if Daniels can stay healthy, that can change the equation, though.
NFC North: Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings greatly improved their quarterback situation by going from J.J. McCarthy to Kyler Murray, and any Brian Flores-led defense has the ability to do special things. I don't think this team will be bad, but it'll have to be quite good to stay out of the cellar in the NFC North given how loaded the division is. I mean, Murray is an upgrade, but he isn't in the same stratosphere as Jordan Love, Caleb Williams and Jared Goff, the other quarterbacks in this division.
Additionally, are we sure Murray is even going to stay healthy? The Vikings' new signal caller has played more than 11 games just once in his last four seasons and was limited to five appearances in 2025. Assuming Murray misses time, the Vikings will need to rely on McCarthy or Carson Wentz to start for them, making it tougher for them to win. Those scheduled losses could be the difference in what should be a wildly competitive division.
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons
It's Saturday, September 5, and as of this writing, we have no clue who the Atlanta Falcons will be starting under center. Yes, eight days before they kick off their 2026 regular season, the Falcons have not revealed who will be starting at the most important position in all of sports. That feels like an issue, no? Whether it's Tua Tagovailoa, Michael Penix Jr., or literally anyone else, it's hard to feel confident that this quarterback situation will be any good, even with strong weapons (Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts) to feed.
Even if the quarterback situation is better than we expect, are we sure the Falcons will be able to get to opposing quarterbacks? They used first-round picks on Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. in the 2025 NFL Draft, hoping they'd bolster their pass rush, but Walker is out for the year and Pearce will miss the first eight games due to a suspension. The Falcons have talent, but it's really hard to win with subpar quarterback and pass rush play.
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals
Why not save the easiest for last? The NFC West consists of the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, the current Super Bowl favorite Los Angeles Rams, and a team that's won 10 or more games in four of the last five years, the San Francisco 49ers. It also consists of an Arizona Cardinals team that has exactly one winning season in the last decade and has won four games or fewer in three of the last four years (including going 3-14 in 2025). I wonder which of these four teams will finish at the bottom of this division!
It would've taken 13 wins for the Cardinals to avoid finishing at the bottom of the NFC West last season, and there's every reason to believe they'll need 10 or more wins to avoid that fate in 2026. Even if they exceed expectations, does anyone really expect the Cardinals to be that good? Not to mention, the Cardinals might have the toughest schedule in the league. The Cardinals finishing in last place in the best division in football might be the biggest lock of the year.
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