Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- With one week until the MLB trade deadline, every team faces critical decisions on whether to buy, sell, or maintain their current strategy.
- The National League features a surplus of contenders, while the American League has only a few strong teams amid a sea of mediocrity.
- Key predictions for the postseason bracket reveal a tight race in both leagues, with several teams needing to bolster their rosters to secure playoff spots.
With one week until the MLB trade deadline on Aug. 3, every team is in the process of deciding whether to sell or buy — or how much to sell and how much to buy.
The National League and American League are basically perfect opposites at this point. The NL has a surplus of apparent contenders, while the AL has about four teams that can feel reasonably good about their chances in October and a whole bunch of mediocre teams hoping to get on their level.
Let's try our hand at predicting the final bracket in both leagues.
National League postseason bracket
Home | Away |
|---|---|
1. Milwaukee Brewers | FIRST ROUND BYE |
2. Los Angeles Dodgers | FIRST ROUND BYE |
3. Atlanta Braves | 6. Pittsburgh Pirates |
4. Chicago Cubs | 5. Philadelphia Phillies |
1. Milwaukee Brewers (NL Central champions)
By every metric (except innings pitched), Jacob Misiorowski is the best pitcher in baseball right now. He's steamrolling opponents en route to a Cy Young award with a 1.58 ERA and 0.75 WHIP, notching an MLB-best 185 strikeouts in 120.0 innings. He leads a young Brewers rotation that looks quite sharp, and it will only get better once Kyle Harrison returns from the IL.
We know the Brewers' formula at this point. They are a regular season machine, one which does not always translate to the playoffs. Milwaukee's emphasis on hitting for contact, elite defense and aggressive base-running can fall flat against more explosive opponents in a five- or seven-game series, but it's proven to sustain winning between April and September. And with Misiorowski and this pitching staff, the Brewers won't necessarily need to score a billion runs to reach the World Series, either.
The Dodgers are still the favorites to come out of the NL, but Milwaukee has made it clear who the biggest challenger is.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (NL West champions)
The Dodgers are still in cruise control and still the overwhelming favorites to come out of the National League. Ultimately, it would come as a surprise if L.A. can't capture its third straight World Series title, which feels odd to say when baseball, historically, is a sport of parity. These Dodgers are just built different, with a chance to add more firepower at the deadline if the front office so chooses.
Los Angeles could use some better injury luck, particularly on the rotation front, but if Rōki Sasaki is finally turning a corner, it will be hard to poke holes in this team. Just imagine if Kyle Tucker becomes more than a league-average hitter when the games count.
3. Atlanta Braves (NL East champions)
Ronald Acuña Jr. is back and momentum has shifted back entirely from Philadelphia to Atlanta in the NL East. Maybe that was inevitable, as the Braves are simply a much deeper and more talented team on paper. The Phillies have stars at the tippy top, but their lineup bottoms out after Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, while their rotation is essentially three top-10 pitchers in the sport and two meatball servers.
The Braves could use some pitching reinforcements at the deadline, too, but Atlanta has Chris Sale and an all-world bullpen. Moreover, the Braves' lineup has, for the most part, been there and done that. If this team is finally semi-healthy down the stretch, Atlanta is in the mix with Milwaukee as the Dodgers' foremost challenger.
4. Chicago Cubs
Pete Crow-Armstrong is ready to sign, seal and deliver his first MVP award, and the Cubs are a fun group. That lineup has ready firepower, especially among the outfielders. If better days are ahead for Alex Bregman and Nico Hoerner, there's a nonzero chance Chicago has the most oomph of any team trying to challenge Los Angeles.
The doubts arise chiefly with their pitching staff. Matthew Boyd and Shōta Imanage have steadied the ship, but neither should be starting Game 1 of a postseason series. Edward Cabrera didn't take the ace leap Chicago fans hoped for, and that was before a lengthy stint on the IL.
Few teams can improve their outlook more at the deadline than Chicago, but it's hard to trust Jed Hoyer to match his aggression to the ambition of his fan base.
5. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies really, really need to take a few swings at the deadline. The window is closing rapidly on this core and no team has a greater imbalance between top-end talent and the bottom half of their roster. The Brad Keller injury has opened up a gaping hole in the bullpen, too, so the Phillies could use just about everything: more bats, another starter, a high-leverage reliever.
Still, Cristopher Sánchez and Zack Wheeler are Cy Young candidates, while Jesús Luzardo would headline the rotation for plenty of teams. Three flat-out elite aces, a star-powered trio of Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Trea Turner and a shutdown closer in Jhoan Durán should at least get Philadelphia to the playoffs. What happens from there depends on what Dave Dombrowski has up his sleeve.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh has kept its hat in the ring all season without fully taking the leap necessary to eclipse the likes of Arizona, St. Louis or Washington. None of those teams are going away fully, but the Pirates — on paper — have the best blend of elite frontline pitching and a deep, balanced lineup. The Oneil Cruz and Konnor Griffin injuries are a bummer, but Ryan O'Hearn is hammering a highlight-reel homer seemingly every other night while Brandon Lowe, Bryan Reynolds and hot-shot rookie Esmerlyn Valdez can absolutely keep Pittsburgh feisty in October.
Jared Jones is starting to turn the corner, looking like the Robin to Paul Skenes' Batman in the rotation. Bubba Chandler went 6.1 scoreless innings in his first start post-ASB. There's a lot of talent in the Pirates rotation. You'd prefer if everyone was just a bit sharper, but it's easy to imagine Pittsburgh's staff catching a wave in these final months. If the Pirates can aggressively add a few bullpen arms at the deadline, that sure would go a long way.
American League postseason bracket
Home | Away |
|---|---|
1. New York Yankees | FIRST ROUND BYE |
2. Chicago White Sox | FIRST ROUND BYE |
3. Seattle Mariners | 6. Cleveland Guardians |
4. Tampa Bay Rays | 5. Boston Red Sox |
1. New York Yankees (AL East champions)
The Yankees are half-buried in injuries right now between Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Cody Bellinger. The lineup is hilariously top-heavy and their bullpen could use a facelift. The rotation, despite Cam Schlittler's Cy Young-worthy efforts, only just welcomed Max Fried back into the fold. There is no shortage of uncertainty baked into the equation with New York at this point.
As we enter the stretch run, however, it's probably wise to bet on the Yankees' star power in the incredibly weak American League field. There isn't a more fearsome rotation gauntlet than Schlittler, Fried and Gerrit Cole when the Yankees are firing on all cylinders. Ben Rice is carrying right now. The Yankees are also equipped, financially and prospects-wise, to go all-in at the deadline, which should help paper over their short-term flaws.
2. Chicago White Sox (AL Central champions)
How about these damn White Sox? Is there a more entertaining group to watch in MLB right now? The South Siders keep on keeping on, and with the Guardians spiraling, the path to an AL Central crown is wide-open in front of them. We shall see if the White Sox have the gumption to add big-time pieces at the deadline, but Chicago's lineup is full of pop and the joie de vivre you can only get with an upstart group of youngsters who believe.
The White Sox could use another starter and a few more bullets in the bullpen. Davis Martin and Sean Burke deserve a ton of credit for their work this season, and top pitching prospect Hagen Smith could come in handy down the stretch. That said, until Noah Schultz proves even remotely dependable, the White Sox need to move heaven and earth to field a pitching staff that can support their potent offense.
3. Seattle Mariners (AL West champions)
I am going to keep purchasing Mariners stock until there's no more left. This team should be much better than its current sub-.500 record suggests. Seattle has dealt with injuries and the complete implosion of 2025 MVP candidate Cal Raleigh, but the M's are still loaded to the gills with quality pitching and possessive of more offensive talent than any other American League frontrunners, the Yankees notwithstanding.
Better yet, Seattle has the pieces to make major moves at the deadline. Their six-man rotation could be trimmed to five if Emerson Hancock is flipped to acquire an impactful bat. Meanwhile, the Mariners farm system is juiced. This team was a little bit of Game 7 luck away from the AL pennant a year ago. Do not give up hope yet.
4. Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa has probably "earned" the right to stick at No. 1 in these projections, but the Yankees are well within striking distance — and the Red Sox would love to join the party, too.
The Rays are a classic small-market dynamo that does not really project toward the playoffs. Their lineup gets shallow on the back end and the bullpen needs a few more hoses. The three-headed monster of Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero can go up against any in MLB, however, and the Rays' rotation is pretty airtight. Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan and Nick Martinez (in his current form) can carry a team through a series if the bats are alive.
5. Boston Red Sox
Nothing rekindles a fan base's optimism quite like a historic 15-game win streak. Boston is baseball's hottest team, and there's a nonzero chance that momentum carries all the way through October. On paper, these Red Sox are every bit the real deal. The rotation has depth, even with Garrett Crochet out of the picture. The Curtis Mead trade was lampooned by many, but even if Washington comes away victorious in the long run, that trade benefits Boston far more in the immediate future.
The Red Sox should keep their foot on the gas pedal leading up to the trade deadline. Another bat or two, maybe some depth to line the pitching staff, and there's no reason to bet against Boston's continued ascent. Tampa and New York have a big cushion to work with in the division standings, but can Boston topple the Rays in a hypothetical Wild Card series? 100 percent.
6. Cleveland Guardians
Is Cleveland "better" than the Rangers, Twins, Tigers and any other team in the mix here? Not really, but the Guardians are the most proven of the group, the most known commodity. Even with their recent five-game skid, even with more questions than ever about their offensive viability in a playoff series, the safe bet is on Cleveland scrapping and clawing its way to a Wild Card berth.
The Guardians know how to win almost exclusively on the margins. Their pitching staff is quite strong, which sure helps. Gavin Williams fired seven scoreless innings with 11 Ks in his return from the All-Star break. Parker Messick looks the part of a viable second ace. Cleveland's bullpen almost always comes through. The Guardians still can't hit for power like other AL contenders, but the youth movement led by Travis Bazzana, Chase DeLauter and Kyle Manzardo at least raises their ceiling compared to years past.
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